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With 17 days as the crow flies before it happens, it's time for me to do something I've been resisting for a week or so: formally increase my odds that we'll go over rather than avoid the fiscal cliff.

Back in September I said it was better than 50-50 that no deal would be in place by January 1. I raised that to 60 percent immediately after the election. Today, I'm raising my predicted likelihood of no deal before January 1 to 75 percent, and I may still be overstating the possibility that an agreement will be reached and put in place before the tax cuts and spending increases go into effect.

I really hope I'm wrong, and will gladly and publicly say that if a last-minute deal materializes. But here's why I don't think I am:

  Big Banks are famously too big to fail, too big to manage, and too big to prosecute.  Now a recent report by the OCC details that they fail to meet even minimal standards of sound management.  Even after blowing up the economy, getting a multi-trillion dollar...

Today (Friday) workers and their unions in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, South Africa, United Kingdom, Zambia and the United States are joining together to demand change at Walmart through the UNI Walmart Global Union Alliance. Josh Eidelson explains at The Nation...

Washington is agog with fiscal cliff hysteria. With everyone focused on how to reduce deficits, isn’t it time for a little common sense? Most Americans think their tax dollars are wasted in Washington. So why not start with a focus on reducing waste? That would mean...

One of the more positive consequences of this ridiculous fiscal cliff fight seems to be a growing awareness that the beltway is out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans. For those who've read Chris Hayes' brilliant book Twilight of the Elites, this is well-trod ground and his analysis explains quite well how this came to pass.

And if I can toot my own horn just a little bit, I'd offer that this is one of the foundational critiques of the online left, going all the way back to Media Whores Online and Bartcop. And my own little contribution to the understanding of this speaks directly to the idea. It goes back to about 2004.

Our trade deficit with China just hit a new record: $42.2 billion in October, up from $40.3 billion in September. The goods deficit with China rose to $29.5 billion in October, up from $29.1 billion in September. This is the largest single monthly goods deficit with...