Each morning, Bill Scher and Terrance Heath serve up what progressives need to affect change on the kitchen-table issues families face: jobs, health care, green energy, financial reform, affordable education and retirement security.
Campaigns Head Into Final Stretch
NYT sums up the closing arguments: "Republicans made their closing argument on Sunday for capturing control of Congress, assailing President Obama as a champion of wasteful and excessive government, as Democrats countered that returning power to Republicans would embolden corporations and the wealthy with disastrous results for middle-class Americans."
"Republicans Predict Obama Rebuff in Election; Democrats Foresee Surprise" headlines Bloomberg.
NYT's Nate Silver notes great uncertainty in the poll data: "This is a really strange election, or at least one that pollsters are having an awfully difficult time getting a handle on. To claim you can predict Republican gains within a range of 5 or 10 seats isn’t science — it’s superstition."
LAT speculates that non-voters will outnumber voters: "According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, there likely will be more non-voters this year than voters. Indeed, turnout in midterm elections typically is less than 40% of the voting-age population. The survey shows that those who choose not to exercise their franchise likely will be younger, less educated and more financially stressed than those who call themselves likely voters ... those who choose not to vote could be considered more liberal than those who do ..."
NYT speculates youth vote won't turn out tomorrow: "Experts say the usual midterm effect, in which young voters are especially likely to disengage, has combined with an unexpected distance that has arisen between Mr. Obama and many young constituents. While most of them still view him more favorably than their parents or grandparents do, various polls show that the youthful passion that led to action has not been sustained."
Jed Lewison has four questions for the GOP, and four answers for undecided voters: "Questions: 1. What was the average monthly private sector job growth in 2008, the final year of the Bush presidency, and what has it been so far in 2010? 2. What was the Federal deficit for the last fiscal year of the Bush presidency, and what was it for the first full fiscal year of the Obama presidency? 3. What was the stock market at on the last day of the Bush presidency? What is it at today? 4. Which party's candidate for speaker will campaign this weekend with a Nazi reenactor who dressed up in a SS uniform?"
Those moralizing about debt are leading voters to vote for economic pain, says NYT's Paul Krugman: "More and more voters, both here and in Europe, are convinced that what we need is not more stimulus but more punishment. Governments must tighten their belts; debtors must pay what they owe. The irony is that in their determination to punish the undeserving, voters are punishing themselves: by rejecting fiscal stimulus and debt relief, they’re perpetuating high unemployment."
Three states have ballot initiatives, legally dubious, to ban mandate to purchase insurance in health reform law. McClatchy: "Voters in Arizona, Colorado and Oklahoma will have the chance Tuesday to repudiate the new federal health care law's keystone provision ... Dr. Michael Pramenko, president of the Colorado Medical Society, which opposes the ballot initiative, said the amendment could affect any state efforts to set up a program to expand insurance coverage."
If The GOP Wins...
GOP split on what to do if they win. NYT's John Harwood: "The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, reflecting the fervor of his party’s base, recently declared that 'the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.' But former Governor Bush said Republicans must make clear that their top priority is increasing employment and economic growth. In particular, he advised Republicans to seek common ground with Mr. Obama and Democrats on trade and energy policy."
President prepared to veto conservative legislation if necessary. The Hill: "Democrats and White House aides said that Obama is prepared to wield his veto pen and effectively stare down Republicans should they have a successful Election Day. 'The president doesn't shrink from a fight,' one White House official said."
TNR's Alexander Hart sees a worse economy under GOP Congress: "Even some conservative economists agree the case for a new stimulus is strong ... Not only are Republicans dead-set against passing a new stimulus. They want to eliminate what’s left of the old one ... Will it be possible to pass another [unemployment insurance] extension after the Republicans win more seats in the Senate, even if Democrats retain control? The odds aren’t good ..."
GOPers plan attacks on the EPA and climate scientists, if they win. LAT: "The GOP's fire will be concentrated especially on the administration's efforts to use the Environmental Protection Agency's authority over air pollution to tighten emissions controls on coal, oil and other carbon fuels that scientists say contribute to global warming ... In addition, GOP leaders say, they will focus on what they see as distortions of scientific evidence regarding climate change..."
GOP Gov. Haley Barbour says "you won't recognize" health care reform once GOP is done with it, on NBC's Meet The Press.
Secret Corporate Money, Get Used It
Conservative groups funded by secret donors gearing up for 2012. NYT: "Officials with the two conservative groups, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS — which are on track to spend well over $50 million combined this year, a sizable part of it from undisclosed donors — said they would continue advertising against Democrats as Congress returns, when decisions loom on the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts and immigration ... [American Crossroads] also informed major donors late last week that 'research and development' was under way to make the groups even more effective in the next election, part of a pitch for continued investment toward a larger goal."
W. Post examines effect of secret corporate cash in WI senate race: "'I've always been a target in this stuff," Feingold said ... 'And this year, I'm getting the full dose: over $2 million in these ads [criticizing him] that used to not be legal.' ... although the two campaigns are competitive with each other financially, outside groups have spent nearly $3 million on [GOPer Ron] Johnson's behalf ... The Wesleyan Media Project said there have been more commercials about the Senate race in Wisconsin than in any state outside Nevada."
Baseline Scenario's Simon Johnson worries about role of foreign money: "As foreigners accumulate claims on the United States, they will increasingly diversify into corporate assets ... Some of these corporate assets explicitly come with voting rights – but those are supposed to be voting rights over the corporation ... not voting rights in political elections ... This is clearly and absolutely not what the drafters of the Constitutions had in mind ... The only way to deal with this is to require complete disclosure by all corporate entities ... regarding the contributions they make to any organization or individual involved in political messaging or campaigning."
Fed Prepares To Act This Week
W. Post previews this week's Fed meeting, expected to pump billions into economy: "If the efforts succeed, they could finally help bring down the stubbornly high jobless rate. But should the Fed overshoot ... it could produce the same kind of bubbles in the housing and stock markets that caused the slowdown. Or the efforts could fall short ... leaving a clear impression that the mighty Fed is out of bullets - thus adding even more anxiety to an already dire situation ... Fed watchers expect that the two days of meetings around a giant mahogany table will culminate this week in the announcement of around $500 billion in Treasury bond purchases and perhaps a statement indicating a willingness to make even more."
Dean Baker accuses David Broder of backing war with Iran to boost the economy: "If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that's right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating..."
Chinese manufacturers, complaining that their government has adjusted currency too much, tell Americans Christmas will be more expensive. W. Post: "'If the renminbi keeps appreciating, our prices have no more room to drop,' said Cai Qin Liang, 38, who has been in the business making Christmas ornaments and handicrafts for more than a decade. 'We can just stop making these Christmas accessories, but foreigners still celebrate the Christmas holiday and need these things.' It is small manufacturers such as these that the Chinese government says it is worried about as it resists calls for a larger and more rapid appreciation of the currency."
Yet Chinese manufacturing doing just fine, buoyed by stimulus. AP: "Chinese manufacturing accelerated in October with spending on infrastructure projects spurring a jump in new equipment orders even as export demand remained subdued, surveys showed Monday."
Reid Will Push Immigration Reform After Election
Sen. Reid to push immigration reform measure again after elections. NYT: "The legislation, called the Dream Act, would grant conditional permanent residency to illegal immigrant students and illegal immigrants who agree to serve in the military ... Mr. Reid said he would bring the measure to the floor in the lame-duck session regardless of the election’s outcomes. To pass, the measure would require some Republican support, which seems unlikely."
Immigrant bashing on the decline in California, according to new poll, notes LAT's Gregory Rodriguez: "...48% said they thought immigrants were a benefit to the state, and 59% were in favor of allowing illegal immigrants who have lived or worked in the United States for at least two years to remain here. If bad economic times were the main thing driving attitudes toward immigrants, those results would be pretty much impossible ... . Californians survived the much-hyped demographic shift, and we're beginning to get used to our new reality. In other words, whites got to know their new neighbors."
AZ anti-immigrant law goes to federal appeals court today. W. Post: "The only issue Monday is whether to uphold Bolton's order stopping parts of the law from taking effect while the federal lawsuit proceeds. The law's constitutionality will be decided later."
Breakfast Sides
Wall St. reform already squeezing Goldman Sachs. Bloomberg: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is losing its edge in fixed-income trading, the firm’s biggest business and the one that led to record earnings last year ... New restrictions on how much of their own money banks can trade may also be affecting the company’s fixed-income revenue, even though the rules haven’t taken effect yet..."
US hand weakened before this month's international climate talks, because of conservative obstruction. W. Post: "Last year, administration officials assumed that a plan to cap U.S. greenhouse gases ... would help funnel millions to developing countries for climate projects... now that approach is politically dead. And even the administration's ability to provide direct climate assistance to poor nations over the next two years is in doubt because a looming budget battle with Republicans could freeze U.S. foreign aid at this year's levels, or even cut it. 'That's something people I talk to in other capitals are very aware of,' said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists..."
