The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day
Currency, Trade, Climate Focus of China Trip
Time previews this week's US-China prez talks: "...the subject of 'rebalancing' will likely get top billing ... China's top leaders clearly agree with Washington that the country's consumers need to spend more. Pressure from Obama to speed that process along by, for example, continued improvements in China's social safety net, might be met with nods of approval. But Obama will only be able to press Beijing so hard. China's policymakers are still wedded to supporting the country's valuable export industries. Any suggestions from Obama that would result in a drastic shift of the economy away from exports and towards heavier reliance on domestic spending will be less welcome [and] economists doubt China's leaders will take drastic steps to reform its currency system anytime soon.
Newsweek tries to explain thinking of Chinese leadership: "Within Chinese government circles, explains [Brookings' David] Shambaugh, there is an escalating debate over whether the country should assume the role of a 'responsible big power' or just continue practicing the late Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping's more veiled and ambiguous strategy of 'biding time, hiding capabilities, but doing some things.' Skeptics in the Beijing leadership believe China simply isn't ready to take on much greater global responsibilities—and yet 'some people want Beijing to overextend itself precisely so that Chinese growth will be stifled,' says Professor Yan [Xuetong]."
Obama touches on trade in China town hall: "...just look at how far we have come. In 1979, trade between the United States and China stood at roughly $5 billion -- today it tops over $400 billion each year. The commerce affects our people's lives in so many ways. America imports from China many of the computer parts we use, the clothes we wear; and we export to China machinery that helps power your industry. This trade could create even more jobs on both sides of the Pacific, while allowing our people to enjoy a better quality of life. And as demand becomes more balanced, it can lead to even broader prosperity."
Krugman deeply worried about trade imbalance: "...let’s hope that when the cameras aren’t rolling Mr. Obama and his hosts engage in some frank talk about currency policy ... Last week’s U.S. trade report showed a sharp increase in the trade deficit between August and September. And there will be many more reports along those lines. So picture this: month after month of headlines juxtaposing soaring U.S. trade deficits and Chinese trade surpluses with the suffering of unemployed American workers. If I were the Chinese government, I’d be really worried about that prospect ... [Yet] they’ve taken to lecturing the United States, telling us to raise interest rates and curb fiscal deficits — that is, to make our unemployment problem even worse."
Momentum For Intermediary Climate Agreement
American and Asian leaders formally agree to pursue intermediary climate agreement next month. W. Post: "...leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit endorsed the proposal by Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen for a limited, short-term climate agreement that would be finalized as a legally binding treaty in 2010. The new approach -- 'one agreement, two steps,' as Rasmussen called it -- would have all 192 countries participating in the talks sign an agreement on major parts of the negotiation, including mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance."
LA Times suggests new international strategy could improve prospects for US climate bill: "Scaled-back action in Copenhagen could help push a Senate bill over the top by securing pledges for emissions reductions from China and India, and thereby reassuring moderate Rust Belt Democrats ... It's still possible that negotiators might not agree on even a scaled-back declaration in Copenhagen -- and that could set treaty talks back considerably."
Climate Progress enthuses: "Now it will be obvious when the Senate takes up the bill up in the winter that the rest of the world is prepared to act — that every major country in the world has come to the table with serious targets and/or serious commitments to change their greenhouse gas emissions trajectories."
Politico reports tripartisan deal expected before Copenhagen: "Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) plan to release a framework for bipartisan legislation before the talks to send a signal that the United States is committed to taking action. But few senators expect Reid to actually put the bill on the Senate calendar."
Head of UN climate science plan lambastes delay. NYT quotes: "It signifies an abandonment of moral responsibility that a position of leadership on the world stage clearly implies."
Waiting on CBO
Bloomberg previews Senate floor debate: "...Reid has delayed unveiling his legislation while waiting for Congressional Budget Office cost estimates on various proposals ... 'Once we hear from CBO, we will take the legislation to the caucus and hope to start floor debate as soon as possible,' said Jim Manley, Reid’s spokesman ... Reid first must corral 60 votes to start debate. Later, he might do a test vote on the proposal with a public option before accepting [Sen. Olympia] Snowe’s plan to create a government program only if premiums aren’t affordable enough, [former Sen. John] Breaux said."
Chamber of Commerce looking to pay for "study" attacking health care reform. W. Post uncovers: "The e-mail, written by the Chamber's senior health policy manager and obtained by The Washington Post, proposes spending $50,000 to hire a 'respected economist' to study the impact of health-care legislation, which is expected to come to the Senate floor this week, would have on jobs and the economy. Step two, according to the e-mail, appears to assume the outcome of the economic review..."
Drugmakers jacking up prices in advance of legislation. NYT: "Even as drug makers promise to support Washington’s health care overhaul by shaving $8 billion a year off the nation’s drug costs after the legislation takes effect, the industry has been raising its prices at the fastest rate in years. In the last year, the industry has raised the wholesale prices of brand-name prescription drugs by about 9 percent, according to industry analysts. That will add more than $10 billion to the nation’s drug bill..."
Major pushback on interpretation of Center for Medicare and Medicaid report on House bill. Politico on WH response: "Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, pushed back Sunday on the CMS report that concluded Medicare beneficiaries could lose access to health care providers under the House bill ... 'It is an interesting analysis but it is pretty speculative though of what the impact will be on providers and beneficiaries. Our recent experience would indicate something quite different.'" Kevin Drum: "What CMS is saying is that the healthcare sector tends to be labor intensive, and thus won't be able to improve its efficiency as rapidly as the broader economy. Which might be true. Still, it's worth noting that this is basically a counsel of despair. It suggests that controlling the growth of healthcare spending is hopeless, and any attempt to try it won't work. ... I don't buy that ... we're going to have to control healthcare spending one way or another, and the sooner we give it a serious try the better." Walker Report: "CMS concludes that the public option would provide better quality health insurance at a better value." Wonk Room: "If the CMS analysis suggests that reform legislation should adopt robust cost-containment provisions, it also applauds the bill for expanding coverage by building and strengthening the current public/private system. The report is a wake-up call for reformers as much as it is a full and complete rejection of critics who argue that the House bill will undermine the existing health care system."
Financial Reform Fights Brew
Politico reviews points of conflict with Dodd financial reform bill: "Dodd has immediately picked a fight with his House counterpart, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), by proposing to strip the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of its supervisory powers and give those powers to a new banking super-regulator ... [Bankers] continue to fight over who pays into a 'too big to fail' fund ... Community banks want the big banks to prepay into this emergency fund. The big banks prefer the approach taken by Dodd’s bill: the FDIC collecting money from big firms after the crisis has passed."
House working on too-big-to-fail reform. The Hill: "The House Financial Services Committee next week is set to debate the highly contentious issue of whether the government should have the power to break up large financial firms even if they’re not about to fail. Lobbyists for big banks are anxious about language still being drafted by Reps. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) that would give new powers to the government to break up big firms and separate their different types of commercial and investment banking business.
HuffPost's Art Levine previews today's Goldman Sachs protest: "EIU President Andy Stern is joining hundreds of progressives -- and potentially more -- in a newly organized protest outside the Washington, D.C. offices of Goldman Sachs on Monday at noon. SEIU is part of a co-sponsoring coalition, Americans For Financial Reform, that also includes other unions, such as the AFL-CIO, and the advocacy groups Public Citizen and National People's Action that are planning the march."
The Hill reports on possible Senate jobs bill: "A bill sponsored by Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) would give unemployment compensation to employees who accept a reduced work schedule to allow their companies to avert layoffs or to hire more employees. Reed's proposal for work-sharing was mentioned during the Senate Democrats' lunch Tuesday, when Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) announced that an initiative focusing on jobs would soon be a priority, Reed's office said ... Reid hasn't tipped his hand on what the coming legislation will include. Labor unions have called for more aid to states to help prevent cutbacks of public employees, loans for small businesses and more investment in infrastructure projects."
GM to start paying back US early reports NYT: "One reason was the 'cash for clunkers' program..."
