According to a recent Washington Post poll, Donald Trump is deemed “unfavorable” by majorities of African Americans, Hispanics, white women, and white men.
That’s pretty much everybody.
The notion that Donald Trump “gets away with everything” and can race-bait and women-hate his way to the presidency is statistically wrong. A campaign strategy based on always being crazier than the day before, just so you can dominate every news cycle, is a political pyramid scheme. If Trump continued to campaign this way, and these poll numbers held through November, Trump would suffer a landslide defeat.
Nevertheless, he’s on track to win a plurality of the Republican primary delegates before the convention, because the half of Republican Party voters who hold bigoted positions on immigration drives help Trump win contests with pluralities, among relatively few voters and against divided opposition.
But Trump is not on track to win a majority of the delegates. He still could, mathematically speaking, but more likely he’ll be a bit short.
The question then becomes: Does the Republican Party leadership and the Republican convention delegates have the spine to stand up to Trump, and his threats of riots, and deny him a delegate majority?
While several prominent conservatives have fully disavowed Trump, not many elected Republican officials have done the same, even though the paucity of Trump endorsements reveals their discomfort. This suggests Republicans will likely cower in Cleveland.
But if they have the principles they claim to have, if they have the leadership they readily accuse others of lacking, they will start readying the Republican electorate for a full-court press to block Trump on the convention floor.
Karl Rove is at least offering a little rhetorical ammunition, laying out a historical case in the Wall Street Journal for rejecting Trump’s claim that a plurality of delegates is sufficient for the nomination. But Rove’s talking points have yet to receive wider airing.
That’s a problem for the #NeverTrump forces, because a Bloomberg poll shows most Republicans accept Trump’s plurality claims. As of today, the Republican rank-and-file don’t have the stomach for a floor fight. Those poll numbers need to change if anti-Trump Republican delegates are to have a mandate for banding together.
And the convention is only four months away. If the Republican Party wants to stop Trump, it better start acting like it soon.