Countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) say they have reached a deal. So here it comes.
Monday morning it was announced that a "Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal Is Reached," presented as much as a foreign policy success as a "trade" deal.
"The United States, Japan and 10 other Pacific basin nations on Monday agreed after years of negotiations to the largest regional trade accord in history, an economic pact envisioned as a bulwark against China’s power and a standard-setter for global commerce, worker rights and environmental protection.
... The trade initiative, dating to the start of his administration, is a centerpiece of Mr. Obama’s economic program to expand exports. It also stands as a capstone for his foreign policy “pivot” toward closer relations with fast-growing eastern Asia, after years of American preoccupation with the Middle East and North Africa.
The effect the deal will have on actual "trade" is unclear, since the U.S. already has trade agreements with many of the participating countries. Also much of the deal appears to be about things people would not usually consider "trade", like investor rights and limits on the ability of countries to regulate.
Though the deal remains secret, here is some of what is known about the agreement deal.
● Currency manipulation is not addressed in TPP, even though Congress' "fast track" legislation said it must be. To get around this, a "side agreement" supposedly sets up a "forum" on currency. Past side agreements have proven unenforceable. For this reason Ford Motor Company has already publicly announced opposition to TPP.
● A "tobacco carve-out" is in the deal, in some form. This was added because the agreement contains investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions that will allow corporations to sue governments that use laws or regulations to try to restrict what the companies do. These provisions restrict the ability of governments to protect their citizens so thoroughly that tobacco companies have used ISDS provisions in similar agreements to sue governments that try to help smokers quit or prevent children from starting smoking. TPP proponents felt that this carve-out will help TPP to pass, while the ability to limit other laws and regulations remains.
● President Obama has said TPP includes the "strongest labor provisions of any free trade agreement in history." Previous "trade" agreements do not even stop labor organizers from being murdered, so even if TPP has "stronger" labor provisions, that is an extremely low bar.
● TPP reduces or eliminates many tariffs, further encouraging companies to move factories out of the U.S. to low-wage countries like Vietnam. An example of the effect TPP will have on U.S. manufacturing is Nike vs. New Balance. Nike already outsources its manufacturing to take advantage of low wages, while New Balance is trying to continue to manufacture in the U.S. When tariffs on imported shoes are eliminated Nike will gain an even greater advantage over New Balance. New Balance has said that the tariff reductions in TPP will force it to stop manufacturing inside the US.
● The reduction and elimination of tariffs reduces revenues for the governments involved.
Here is a brief rundown on what to expect as TPP begins to make its way toward a Congressional vote:
● The TPP is still secret and according to the terms in this year's fast-track legislation it will remain secret for 30 days after the president formally notifies Congress that he will sign it. That could be a while still, as the agreement's details need to be "ironed out." After that 30-day wait the full text has to be public for 60 days before Congress can vote. The full timeline is yet to unfold and will be reported here as it does.
● Expect a massive and massively funded corporate PR push. The biggest corporations very much want TPP. It massively benefits the interests of giant corporations and the "investor" class, even as it incentivizes moving jobs and production out of the U.S.
● While only a small portion of TPP is about what people would normally consider to be "trade," TPP will be heavily pushed as a "trade" deal. Many people believe that "expanding trade" increases jobs. Note that closing a U.S. factory and importing the same goods "expands trade" because those goods cross a border.
Also see the American Prospect, "What’s Next for the TPP: Clyde Prestowitz in Conversation with David Dayen."
Questions To Ask About TPP
When the still-secret TPP becomes public, these are some of the questions the public will want answered:
● What do regular, non-wealthy people in the U.S. get from TPP? Will it increase American wages? Will it have provisions that force wage increases in countries that currently pay very little, thereby helping those workers (and helping them buy American-made products, too) and reducing downward pressure on American wages? Or will there be NAFTA-style provisions encouraging outsourcing to low-wage countries like Vietnam, creating further downward pressure on wages and increasing inequality?
● What do people in the U.S. lose? For example, the Los Angeles Times explains, "U.S. industries such as auto, textiles and dairy, however, could experience some losses as they are likely to face greater competitive pressures from Vietnam, Japan and New Zealand."
● Does the TPP contain badly needed provisions to require member countries to jointly fight global climate change?
● Will provisions on state-owned enterprises force further privatization of publicly owned and publicly operated infrastructure like the U.S. Postal Service, highways, water systems and other public utilities – even services like municipal parking operations?
● Will TPP enable the U.S. to continue using tax dollars to help American companies, like our "Buy America" procurement policies?
● Will TPP expand imports from countries where food is often found to contain banned toxic chemicals? If so, will TPP require increases in food and product safety standards and inspections?
● Does the TPP increase oversight of financial companies like banks, insurance companies and hedge funds?
TPP Pits Obama, Republicans, Wall Street And Big Corporations Against Democrats, Labor, Progressives
While still secret, the agreement is likely to have many of the same proponents and opponents as the fast-track trade promotion authority battle had. As the Los Angeles Times words it today, it "pits the White House, many Republicans and supporters of free trade against organized labor, civic groups and many lawmakers from Obama's own party, who fear the deal will hurt workers and the environment."
In a Monday morning call Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said the TPP text Congress is allowed to see has not been updated for some time, so even they don't know what is in it. Saying Congress has had to rely on leaks and hasn't seen the supposed "side agreements" at all, DeLauro asked the administration to "have the courage" to show Congress and the public the text now.
DeLauro complained that leaked drafts show U.S. negotiators negotiating hard for pharmaceutical companies, but not for the interests of American workers. "The administration has put big corporations first, workers last."
She said rules-of-origin requirements allow less than half to be made in U.S. and TPP countries, the rest can come from countries like China. "None of us can think of a clearer mechanism for taking American jobs"
Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) said, "we've seen the nightmare NAFTA brought to our manufacturing sector and hard-working American families; this deal is NAFTA on steroids" because this is much broader. Multinational corporations will benefit from increased drug prices and access to cheaper labor.
Rep. Dan "Rock Star" Kildee (D-Mich.) said "what's not there is there is a lack of any enforceable currency provision. This ties American manufacturer's hands behind their back as they try to compete. Worse, new rules of origin allow the Chinese to provide more than half the content of a car and it will be treated as domestic. Combined with no currency rules, this will have a devastating effect."
He added, "I would ask members who voted for fast track to look at the details. When they see specific details and impact on their businesses I think they will vote no."
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said, "I'm a car girl ... we are only operating on early reports but already Ford and Chrysler are opposed, joining the UAW, and those companies have strongly supported previous deals."
Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) called TPP a "huge win for China because of currency, rules of origin; we get zero access to the Chinese market."
On the ability to ensure even these ow rules of origin, Sherman said, "What about de facto rules? How does anyone police it? Are Chinese going to report companies that are mislabeling?"
The Teamsters are asking people to sign this petition:" Tell Congress: Show Me the Text on Reported TPP Deal."
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has released this petition and is asking people for signatures: "Sign my petition to join our fight against the disastrous Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal. We cannot afford to let this trade deal hurt consumers and cost America jobs."
The U.S. Trade Representative office has released this summary-