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On Today's Menu:

  • Senator Bayh Says Goodbye
  • President Obama's Approval Up
  • Job and Budgets
  • Debt and China
  • GOP Meets Tea Party

Bye, Bayh.

A Political Career Gone Bayh: Politico's Glenn Thrush & Jonathan Martin remember another young Democrat who gave a convention keynote speech and launched a political career that never quite soared: "On paper, Bayh seemed like an ideal national Democratic candidate: attractive, bright and moderate enough to attract Midwestern voters, with the fundraising connections of the Eastern prep school student he was. But Bayh’s career never quite jelled, and the Chicago speech effectively rendered him an afterthought two years before his election to the Senate. ...Bayh’s stunning decision to call it quits rather than brave a perilous reelection campaign marks not only an exit from a Senate he’s never much loved but also the end of a once-promising national political career that never quite lived up to the hype."

Why Bayh Said Goodbye: At Talking Points Memo, David Kurtz considers the timing of Bayh's goodbye to the Senate: "In the fallout over Evan Bayh's retirement announcement, one of the things we've been grappling with today was whether his timing was designed to prevent Indiana Democrats from holding a primary election — or whether that was just collateral damage from a last-minute decision."

Primary Priorities?: Evan McMorris-Santoro reports for TPMDC that on a conference call with county Democratic Party chairs, Bayh declared not having a 'divisive primary' would be good for Democrats, as they search for a replacement: "[I]n a message tailored for his audience of local party officials, Bayh said the timing of his announcement could be a positive for Democrats. The source said that Bayh told the call that the lack of a primary would mean that the Republican party candidates would attack each other on their own, with no Democrats to get in the way. On the Democratic side of the process, according to the source, Bayh said officials would choose a strong nominee from their 'deep bench.'"

GOP Focuses on Process: Politico Ben Smith reports that Republicans are focused on the process of replacing Bayh: "It didn't get too much attention amid the Bayh-fest last night, but the National Republican Seantorial Committee has begun to focus on the timing of Bayh's withdrawal, and to call attention to a process that appears likely to allow state Democratic leaders to fill Bayh's seat without a primary. NRSC chief counsel Sean Cairncross in a statement last night suggested that Bayh would have to file papers indicating his own intent to run in order to withdraw and allow party leaders to fill the seat."

Democratic Panic?: First Read's Domenico Montanaro suggests Democrats are in a panic that will't serve them well: "Obama’s approval is at or near 50% (even at 53% in the always-volatile Gallup daily track). Yet Democrats, including what we saw and heard from Evan Bayh yesterday, are behaving like Obama is at 35%. This is particularly ironic when we’re just a year-plus removed from a president whose approval was 25% to 30%. There is no doubt that this is a TOUGH political environment for Democrats, but are they making it tougher by running for the hills when things might not be as bad for them as was the GOP’s situation from 2006-2008? And what does it say about the Democrats and their ability to govern when they’re acting like this when their president is at 50%? Republicans rallied around their president in '04, when he was hovering around 50%."

President Bayh?: Meanwhile, a TPM reader makes the case for a potential Bayh presidential run: "The most logical conclusion from Evan Bayh's retirement today is that he wants to be the next President of the United States. With $13 million in the bank and great reelect numbers against fairly weak opponents, a third senate term seemed very likely. If you look at his career in the senate, it's consistently marked by spotlight-grabbing antics, including his regular play to be the leader of some variation of the 'Senate Blue Dog' caucus, which has ended in failure each time. ...This is a man that is already running for President. His platform is already written for him. He wants to be the moderate candidate who will, in his mind, will receive some Republican support. In my mind, the only question is whether he's going to primary Obama in 2012 or whether he's going to wait for the open race in 2016."

Does Bayh Even Matter?: At the American Prospect, KCinDC asks how much does Bayh even matter to Senate Democrats: "But the panic over this announcement also shows just how shaky a foundation the idea of a Democratic party unity was. Democrats depend on this guy, someone willing to leave in a heartbeat because being a legislator is hard? And Bayh was pretty centrist, Matt Yglesias points out, with a record similar to that of his Republican co-senator, Dick Lugar. How different will a centrist Republican — if that's who takes Bayh's place — be? These points might be especially important to keep in mind as Democrats get further away from the illusion of a supermajority that can get things done."

Senator Cut-and-Run?: Andrew Gelman at FiveThirtyEight says Bayh's goodbye is another case of "when the going gets tough, the not-so-tough get gone": "Senator Bayh's retirement announcement reminds me of a point I've made before (also here) but I think is worth making again: National swings between the two parties are amplified by politicians' natural tendency to stay put when things are going well and retire when the political climate looks stormy."

Bayh's Parting Shot: Lean Left's Deacon Blues suggests Bayh's timing is designed to damage Democrats: "He didn't tell the DSCC or Harry Reid anything until today. And did I mention that the filing deadline for another Indiana Democrat to qualify for the ballot and jump in — is tomorrow? Allow me to suggest that this timing and rollout is not an accident. Despite his typically lofty talk about wanting to pursue change from outside Congress, the truth is that Bayh has now ensured that the GOP will take his seat with a neanderthal who has no commitment whatsoever to Bayh's lofty vision of how Congress should work."

Obama Up...

Obama's Approval Up: Taegan Goddard points to a Gallup poll showing a six point jump in the president's approval ratings: "The Gallup daily tracking poll now shows President Obama's approval rate at 53%, a jump of six point in the last three weeks."

What Bubba Can Teach Obama: Even from his hospital bed, E.J. Dionne says there a lot that Bill Clinton can teach president Obama: "Yes, Clinton put his presidency at risk over a sex scandal, and his infuriating moments around the 2008 South Carolina primary disheartened even his most loyal supporters. But Clinton remains one of the most talented politicians in our history, and it’s not simply because he feels people’s pain or speaks so well that you sit in your driveway to hear the rest of his speech when he’s on the car radio. Above all, he understands how hard it is to be a progressive politician at this time in history."

Jobs and Budgets

The Coming Job Crisis: At The Baseline Scenario, James Kwack looks at the possible effects of long-term high unemployment: "there are sound economic reasons why we should care not just about the overall unemployment level, but about unemployment levels in specific sub-groups (such as men in inner cities), since unemployment has obvious negative externalities. The recession may also be reinforcing the long-term trend toward inequality in American society. Recessions typically reduce income inequality in the short term, since the rich gain much of their income from investments, which drop faster than wages in a market crash. But the tougher labor market could increase the advantage that people have coming from the upper class."

Passing the Buck Budget -- State Edition: Katherine Barrett and Richard Greene at the American Prospect take a look at state budgets problems and non-solutions that could apply to the federal budget, too: 'Ultimately, all these actions are taken in order to avoid the hard decisions that can truly put states on firm financial footing: tax increases, service cuts, and genuine gains in efficiency. But the first two tend to put off voters, and the third is elusive at best. Still, 'there's just no alternative to stepping up and facing the mega-issues,' Kettl says. 'Sooner or later they all stare us in the face. It might seem easier to wait them out, but when they come back in the future they never get any easier to solve — and they often present all sorts of nasty new twists that make resolving them even more painful.' /It can seem more politically expedient to let future leaders take the heat,' Kettl adds. 'But that isn't what leadership is all about.'"

Straight To China

Debt Demand Down: BBC News reports a record drop in demand for U.S. debt. Even China doesn't want it: "Foreign demand for US Treasury bonds and notes fell by a record amount in December as China reduced its holdings. The Treasury said foreign holdings of US debt dropped by $53bn, surpassing the previous record set last April. China cut its holdings by $34.2bn — meaning it is now the second-biggest US debt holder after Japan. The drop in demand may mean that the US has to pay more to borrow, just as the government has to fund a record budget deficit."

America Through China's Eyes: At TMPCafe, Steve Clemons tells us how the Chinese see America: "Several years ago, I met with the Deputy Director of the Policy Planning staff of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and I asked him what he was working on — and what China's grand strategy was. His reply: 'We are trying to figure out how to keep you Americans distracted in small Middle Eastern countries.' It's pretty memorable when one can joke and be truthful at the same time. China has had opportunities throughout the world open up to it easily — mostly because of systemic American inattention to much else beyond its war slogs."

Big Tent Tea Party

Coming to the Tea Party: Politico reports that RNC chairman Michael Steele will meet with Tea Party activists: "Michael Steele plans to meet Tuesday with about 50 tea party leaders. The California GOP chairman recently trained tea partiers on political organizing and is planning a party-sponsored rally. The South Carolina GOP has a resource-sharing agreement with tea party groups. The North Dakota party chairman hosted a tea party-GOP rally Friday and is urging fellow state chairs to do the same. But for tea partiers, who from the early days of their movement wanted to be heard and taken seriously, it’s a little bit of careful what you wish for."

Not So Independent: Writing at the Christian Science Monitor, Jackie Salit points out the Tea Partyers are not independents, but "disgruntled social conservatives" trying to take over the GOP: "Contrary to some of the spin, the tea party movement is not part of the independent movement. Anyone playing the political game, from the president, to the politicians, to the pollsters, confuses them at their peril. ...The tea partyers are disgruntled social conservatives aiming to take control of the Republican Party, while independents, the antiparty force, are seeking to restructure the partisan political system. As the percentage of Americans – it’s now 42 – who consider themselves independent grows, understanding the route the independent movement has traveled will be critical to future elections."

Tea and Mythology: Salon's Michael Lind encapsulates the key to understanding what Tea Party-ers believe: "Put the myths of the ancient constitution and the early church together, and you have a view of history as decline from an original state of perfection, in politics and also in religion. Innovation is equated with tyranny in politics and heresy in religion. Virtue consists of defending what is left of the old, more perfect system and, if possible, restoring the original government or church. Progress is redefined as regress — movement away from the wicked present toward the pure and uncorrupted past. This way of thinking is more or less extinct in Britain, its original home, but it became an important part of the political culture of the British North American colonies that won their independence from the mother country."

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