Progressive Breakfast for February 10

Morning Message

New Hampshire: Populist Uprising

The scope of Sanders victory took virtually all observers by surprise. He trounced Clinton by more than 20 percentage points. He won ... every income group except the affluent (over $200,000). He won blue-collar voters. He won those without a college education (67-31) and those with one (56-43). He won the very liberal, the liberal, the moderate and the independent ... Fifty-five percent of women voters reserved a berth in Madeline Albright’s “special place in hell” by casting their vote with Sanders. As he had in Iowa, Sanders once more won young voters (18-29) by a staggering margin (83 percent to 16 percent.) Think about that: 83 to 16. He won on the issues. Two-thirds of Democratic voters wanted to replace our health care system with a single payer system ... This is a stunning victory. Writing it off because Sanders comes from a neighboring state won’t work

Establishment Upended in NH

Establishment candidates rejected in NH. Politico: “If the country’s fatigue with the prospect of a Clinton-Bush presidential matchup has hovered above this 2016 race like a latent current of electricity, Tuesday’s New Hampshire results were the long-awaited lightning strike … America faces the real possibility that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders could actually battle for the White House in November.”

Sanders campaign well-financed for long haul. W. Post: “‘One of the big things that separates us from past insurgent campaigns is that we’ll have the resources to enable us to compete across a broad range of states,’ said Tad Devine, a senior strategist for Sanders. Devine said that the campaign is planning to launch ads Wednesday in three Super Tuesday states: Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma.”

Primaries move towards more racially diverse states. Politico: “‘Once you leave New Hampshire, the Democratic Party is 44 percent non-white,’ [Joe] Trippi said … ‘With minority voters, African-Americans and Latinos, the main obstacle we have is they simply don’t know [Sanders]. As they get to know him, as they get to know his story, as they begin to see his message and what he stands for, I think he’s going to have a tremendous opportunity,’ said chief strategist Tad Devine…”

Sen. Harry Reid holds off on endorsement before NV caucus. Politico: “Harry Reid clearly wants Hillary Clinton to be the next president. Yet he hasn’t endorsed her … He believes that a rowdy face-off between Clinton and Sanders supporters could stoke Democratic registration in his booming home state … The Nevada Democratic Party allows same-day registration … he’s also acutely aware that putting his thumb on the scale could alienate Sanders supporters.”

Clinton campaign manager performed well in 2008 NV caucus. Mother Jones: “The 36-year-old [Robby] Mook first rose to fame in Clintonland after he oversaw Clinton’s 2008 Nevada caucus campaign, where she won 51 percent of the popular vote …”

Hillary sounds like Bernie in concession speech. W. Post: “…Sanders has proven any message about knocking down the wealthy is a hit, and Clinton clearly believes she can grab a piece of this one. As she noted, the Citizens United Supreme Court case that opened the outside spending floodgates did indeed center on a 90-minute, anti-Clinton movie … And she staked her own claim to a fired-up base, pushing back against the broad perception that Sanders has the more passionate following.”

Clinton ally James Carville delivers warning. Politico quotes: “Bernie was different, he was the fun guy, now he’s going to get the full treatment now… Life is going to be different for him tomorrow…”

GOP Trumped

Trump wins big and NH Republicans scapegoat Muslims. ABC: “Some two-thirds of Republican voters in New Hampshire expressed support for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, an idea espoused by Donald Trump…”

Kasich surprises. W. Post: “While Trump won most of the subgroups in preliminary exit poll results … Kasich’s finish above other major contenders was driven by late-deciding voters and concentrated among moderate, upscale, and independent-leaning Republican voters who were turned off by Cruz, Rubio and Trump.”

Republicans expect brutal SC contest. Politico: “‘South Carolina is gonna be a bloodbath. Jeb and his people wanted to attack Marco in New Hampshire about abortion? Let’s see how that plays down there. And then there’s Common Core,’ one Rubio adviser said. Bush’s campaign late Tuesday circulated a memo showing it would go after Kasich and Rubio who ‘has demonstrated no respect for the nomination process and expects this to be a coronation.'”

Supreme Court Stays Obama Climate Plan

5-4 ruling hinders implementation of Clean Power Plan before full legal challenge is heard. The Hill: “The court granted the request in a 5-4 vote on Tuesday night, saying the rule was on hold until the circuit court reviews it and Supreme Court appeals are exhausted … The stay means Obama will likely leave office with the fate of his premier climate policy undecided. The circuit court plans to hear arguments on the rule in June, meaning the Supreme Court probably won’t get a chance to hear or rule on the regulation until after Obama’s term ends next January.”

EPA plan anticipated legal delays. The Guardian: “What happens next is that states can call pause on that work while the lower court considers arguments … The White House officials said the plan had been constructed to allow for such legal delays. States do not have to submit their final plans until 2018, and the rules do not come into force until 2022.”