washingtonpost.com — Has there been a House speaker in modern American history with less control over his members than John Boehner? A significant number of Boehner’s members clearly don’t trust his strategic instincts, they don’t feel personally bound to support him, they clearly disagree with his belief that tax rates must rise as part of a deal, and they, along with many other Republicans, must be humiliated after the shenanigans on the House floor this evening. Worse, they know that Boehner knows he’ll need Democratic support to get a budget deal done. That means “a cave,” at least from the perspective of the conservative bloc, is certain. That, too, will make a change of leadership appealing. If a conservative spoiler runs, he or she could very possibly deny Boehner the 218 votes he needs to become speaker. It’s hard to say exactly how likely that is. But it’s likelier than it was, say, this morning.
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