Where will the jobs come from? President Obama wants to double America’s exports over five years to help generate good jobs. With Recovery Act spending coming to an end, states and localities laying off employees, banks still not making loans, and consumers reeling from unemployment, stagnant wages, and losses in home values and retirement plans, increasing exports is one ray of hope to generate jobs. And the U.S. can’t go back to the old economy where trade deficits reached 6 percent of gross domestic product, and we were borrowing over $2 billion a day from abroad to pay for goods made elsewhere.
But if the U.S. is to sell more abroad and borrow less, countries with trade surpluses – notably Germany and China – will have to spend more, buy more, save less and export less. The G-20 governments, representing the leading economies in the world, agreed that is the only way to have the reductions essential to a secure recovery in the dangerous and unsustainable imbalances in the global system.
Only China and Germany clearly haven’t gotten the message. The Chinese continue unprecedented measures to manipulate their currency, now starkly undervalued against the dollar. This is a centerpiece of a comprehensive mercantilist policy of growth by dominating export markets. Germany, the world’s second greatest surplus country, continues to restrain demand at home, while subsidizing its high-end export engines.
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