Deficit Will Be Lower Than Projected In Mid-Session Budget Review

Originally posted at Capital Gain and Games.

It was almost two weeks after the statutory deadline and released on a Friday afternoon in late July so you know the White House doesn’t want it to be big news, but the fiscal 2013 mid-session budget review published on Friday by the Office of Management and Budget has a number of interesting and important data.

1. The fiscal 2012 deficit is now projected to be $1.2 trillion, $116 billion less than was projected in the budget released by the White House in February. That’s a significant reduction, although not necessarily the correct fiscal policy.

2. The mid-session review deficit estimate is probably too high. It looks to me that the White House has left some good news to be reported when the final numbers for 2012 are released just before the election in October. My guess is that the actual deficit will end up closer to $1.1 trillion.

3. The total deficits between 2013-2022 are now project­ed to be $240 billion lower than forecast in February. That also is too high given that it assumes that several Obama proposals to stimulate the economy will be enacted.

4. As I read the tea leaves, even with the relatively slow growth projected by OMB, the 2013 deficit will be close to or below $900 billion.

 

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