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Respected health writer Maggie Mahar ("Money-Driven Medicine") got curious and decided to fact-check the excise tax. Wisely, she follows the money - which in the world of health care follows the chronically ill. Her findings?

... 75 percent of our health care dollars are spent on patients suffering from serious chronic diseases such as cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

As Merrill Goozner points out: “The idea that taxing those plans will somehow encourage people to reduce their utilization is wishful thinking that ignores who actually makes health care decisions -- doctors, hospitals, drug companies, and other providers. It also ignores why most people use health care -- it's because they are sick.

If co-pays for visits to a specialist are high, some chronically ill patients may put off seeking help, but eventually most middle-class Americans will see an oncologist or a cardiologist, even if they have to borrow the money to cover the deductible. "

She provides an excellent overview of the topic and strong rebuttals to the tax's defenders. Well worth a read.

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